Anesth Analg 2009 Sep 19

Forecasting and perception of average and latest hours worked by on-call anesthesiologists.

Dexter F, Epstein RH, Elgart RL, Ledolter J

Abstract
BACKGROUND: We studied the value of providing information to anesthesia providers about the length of time typically worked during on-call shifts. The mean time at which a shift ends can be used for purposes of trades, payments, or reverse auctions, because the mean is proportional to the total time. The 80th percentile (with a suitable upper confidence limit for uncertainty due to limited sample sizes) can be used for judging the earliest time by which after-work activities reasonably can be planned. METHODS: (A) Three years of operating room (OR) information system data were analyzed. Dependent variables were the earliest times when the numbers of ORs running were always 30 min, whereas errors of this magnitude were less for the mean (44%, P = 0.0004). CONCLUSIONS: Historical data from OR or anesthesia information management systems, or from anesthesia billing systems, can be used months before staff scheduling to provide insight to anesthesia providers on respective calls. The data are useful because experience provides limited intuition. Updates on scheduled workload available closer to the day of surgery provided only marginal increases in knowledge over the use of historical data.